ET, ESPN): When Miami comes to town at the end of March, there will be less than two weeks to go in the regular season, making it a potentially massive game for seeding purposes for both teams. At the BetMGM online sportsbook, the Cleveland Cavaliers currently have more conference championship tickets and handle than any other team in the East. Memphis has dropped five of eight during that time. Ormaybe youre set on the Warriors. Caesars' Eastern Conference odds: +340 Quality is determined by the harmonic mean of the teams Elo ratings; importance measures how much the result will alter playoff projections; the overall number is the average of the quality and importance values. Simulations as of Oct. 13, 2022. His 27.5 points per game in February ranks eighth among all players. RAPTOR does not contain a coaching adjustment, so there is no way for it to factor in the absence of Ime Udoka, who was suspended by the Celtics for a year after violating team policy by having an intimate relationship with a female member of the franchises staff. Is that real, or will things start to backslide? FiveThirtyEights 2022 NBA Finals prediction has Golden State with just a seven percent chance to win it all. Philadelphia 76ers (71) 1. About six percent of bettors at BetMGM favor Dallas to win the West. Caesars title odds: +20000 The Kings have moved up 12 spots in the table since the beginning of the season and two from a month ago. 1. When we last saw them On Jan. 26, the Hornets scored a franchise-record 158 points. ET): The Hornets are 2.5 games back of the eighth spot held by Brooklyn and are percentage points ahead of the Hawks for the ninth spot. Design and development by Jay Boice. When we last saw them Atlanta has won 11 of their last 16 games to vault themselves back into the play-in conversation. Although Boston dropped its final game before the All-Star break, it's been a banner few weeks for the franchise, which has won 11 of its last 13 games and outscored teams by more than 250 points during that span. Must-see game left on the schedule: Bucks at 76ers, March 29 (7 p.m. They also have to hope Rose can come back at a high level and stabilize New York's bench. Despite the team being depleted by injuries, DeRozan has kept Chicago afloat, becoming the first player in NBA history to score 35 points on 50% shooting in seven straight games. On top of that, Durant and Irving should both be on the floor to square off against Harden and Embiid. The Cavs dropped their final two games entering the break, but it hardly slowed the momentum for the biggest surprise contender in the conference. Boston Celtics (+550) Now, we know that the NBA has arguably the least meaningful regular season in all of professional sports, so perhaps those stats should count for relatively little when comparing the two teams. Marcus Smart, Al Horford and Robert Williams, three of the keys to the Celtics top-rated defense last year, have missed chunks of the season. You can view updated NBA championship odds and more online sports betting opportunities at the BetMGM online sportsbook. Nets-Celtics, 7:30 p.m. Derrick White Doesn't Produce Like NBA Superstars. (And thats without directly considering the health factor going into the series. Most impactful moment during the season's first half: This could be the return of Marcus Smart on Jan. 23, which coincided with Boston's recent hot streak, but we'll instead say it was the acquisition of Derrick White just before the trade deadline. Even that might be a tad on the high side, but given how much evidence there is that Boston is better than Golden State on a neutral court, its not exactly unreasonable that the Celtics are favored here. Philadelphia 76ers president Daryl Morey famously once said that any team with at least a 5 percent chance of winning the championship should be all-in to try to take advantage of that opportunity. Must-see game left on the schedule: Nets at Heat, March 26 (8 p.m. Some of that is because projection systems tend to bake in regression for teams that show as much year-to-year improvement as Cleveland did last season, and some of it is due to a shockingly low projection for Evan Mobley, whom RAPTOR pegs as a net-neutral this season. Forecast from How this works: These forecasts are based on 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season. All boast championship odds between 5 and 7 percent and are projected for between 49 and 51 wins with point differentials between plus-3.0 and plus-3.8 per game. As weve already established, superstars win championships in the NBA, which must be thrilling for the Mavericks, who have NBA MVP candidate Luka Doncic leading their squad. A teams full-strength rating assumes all of its key players are in the lineup. At the deadline, the Clippers added Mason Plumlee, Eric Gordon and Bones Hyland in exchange for aging John Wall and Luke Kennard. ET, TNT): Health and safety protocols robbed fans of seeing Young return to Madison Square Garden on Christmas Day, so this will be his first trip back since the playoff series last year that ended with him taking a bow at halfcourt. Ja Morants allegations of aggression off the court, explained. Still, the Grizzlies are a deep squad. The fact Erik Spoelstra and his staff were able to navigate through the tough times and continue to rack up wins set them up to be atop the East heading into the break. When we last saw them Giannis Antetokounmpo was going back and forth with Philly's Embiid in the last game before the All-Star break. At the moment, Dallas is priced identically to Golden State and Memphis in both the Western Conference odds (+800) and the overall championship odds (+1600) markets. Who knows? Pivot point for the rest of the season: Count the Bucks among the teams hoping to get healthy before the postseason begins. Brooklyn Nets: Yes (-2500) / No (+950) Despite trading Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant, the Nets are getting very short odds to make the playoffs and FanDuel is offering +980 odds for them to miss the postseason. The Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks took huge swings at the deadline to try to stay in the hunt. Jrue Holiday (finally) was an All-Star again and Brook Lopez is aging like Benjamin Button. Phoenix still projects to have one of the NBAs best starting fives, but the bench appears a bit lacking right now even with the return of Dario ari. Next, we should note that RAPTOR cannot exactly predict the degree to which a team will attempt to tank this season. There is some historical wisdom behind minimalism at the deadline. Health is going to be huge for Phoenix. Jared Dubin is a New York writer and lawyer. 4-seeded Mavericks during the conference finals. They lost both Lonzo Ball and Caruso to extended injuries during a one-week span, but both players along with second-year forward Patrick Williams, who hasn't played since October, are eyeing returns in mid-March. Pivot point for the rest of the season: What kind of an impact will Caris LeVert have? Values and rankings in key statistical categories for the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors during the 2021-22 NBA playoffs. With Giannis avoiding serious injury, the Bucks seem poised to keep rolling down the stretch. Most impactful moment during the season's first half: The Hawks traded away Cam Reddish (as well as Solomon Hill and a 2025 second-rounder) in January for a protected 2022 first-round pick and Kevin Knox. This year, however, there are 11(!) 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. finding their groove has been huge, but so have the additions of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown. It appears the organization trusts the core theyve built around Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley. Cleveland lost two of its top three guards -- Collin Sexton and Ricky Rubio -- to season-ending injuries, so the team made a move before the deadline to pick up LeVert. It should be a heck of a lot of fun to see how the East playoff picture shakes out. Marc Finn and Andres Waters contributed research. The Clippers began the season as one of the title favorites at +700, but a slow start dropped them in the table to +1400 at the end of January. LeBron James and Anthony Davis are simply not enough to carry a roster filled with negative players, some of whom are significant drags on the teams projection. Denvers projection is, of course, powered by Nikola Joki, who is projected to once again lead the league in total RAPTOR by a lot. The 8 NBA teams that can win the championship this season, Jaden Ivey pulled a Chris Webber, and it cost Pistons the game vs. Bulls. Do Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and Ben Simmons actually take the court all season? (Right now, we are projecting him outside of the rotation with no real replacement and the minutes being redistributed among players like Landry Shamet, Cameron Payne, Timoth Luwawu-Cabarrot, Josh Okogie and Damion Lee.) And if you ask for my opinion, yes, I think our forecast is too bullish on the Celtics. Thats 40 to 1. On top of teams jockeying in the standings, the biggest trade of the season -- the James Harden-Ben Simmons swap between the Nets and Philadelphia 76ers -- continues to reverberate across the league, and will require both teams to adjust to the arrival of big-name stars over the next several weeks. FiveThirtyEight's NBA forecast projects the winner of each game and predicts each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the NBA finals. Players like Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson, Lauri Markkanen, Jarred Vanderbilt and Kelly Olynyk still project to perform fairly well and to play significant minutes. Denvers regular-season resume has been good so far. For all those reasons, the Celtics are favored in the NBA championship odds. But now the Sixers have to acclimate themselves to one of the league's biggest -- and most ball-dominant -- stars in 24 games between now and the start of the playoffs. @JADubin5, NBA (1144 posts) However, it also seems like the markets are too bearish on them or, again, too bullish on Golden State. Redistributing minutes from the likes of Jarrett Culver, Jalen Johnson and Vt Krej to Trae Young, John Collins, Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu will do that. The result is a Clippers team deep with effective role players that should be very dangerous in the Western Conference. The addition of Irving has given Dallas an elite second-scoring option behind Luka Doncic. Preseason predicted standings for the NBA's 2021-22 Eastern Conference, according to FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR-based forecast Teams finishing in seventh through 10th place (indicated by black. But whether NBA fans are confident in the Warriors chances or skeptical, there are clearly odds for any attitude. Originally, the model had him on a load-management plan that would limit his minutes within each game. 3 overall draft pick has made himself the favorite for Rookie of the Year honors with 14.9 points, 8.1 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game, while helping anchor a Cavs defense that ranks fourth in the league. Futuresbetsare made on events that have yet to take place. Will the Lakers miss the 2023 NBA Playoffs? So yes, a pretty good case exists that splashy deadline trades often arent the best way to win a championship. White is exactly the kind of player the Celtics needed, one capable of playing at both ends of the court and, equally important, makes smart, quick decisions with the ball. (Besides, Eastern Conference teams went 226-224 against the West anyway; the weak East is a thing of the past. Our player-based RAPTOR forecast doesn't account for wins and losses; it is based entirely. Chicago Bulls (+2100 . The current betting favorites to win the 2022-23NBA championship are the Boston Celtics at +325 odds. Everyones A Favorite In Our 2022-23 NBA Forecast, shockingly low projection for Evan Mobley, as-yet-undetermined-length-of-time absence. Maybe the conventional wisdom is just stuck in the mid-to-late-2010s Warriors dynasty era. Rough scene. He has played four games for his new team so far, but if he can help take some of the playmaking and scoring burden off of All-Star guard Darius Garland, Cleveland could have a chance to go from pleasant surprise to making noise in the postseason. Boston Celtics (87) Neil Paine is the acting sports editor at FiveThirtyEight. Donis closest comparables for this season include 2003 Tracy McGrady, 2009 LeBron James and 2002 Kobe Bryant, among others. Of the three, Memphis is the most popular ticket to win the West, but Golden State is the most popular ticket to win the championship. While NBA coaches tend to . Udoka had a significant impact on Bostons performance last season, particularly on defense, where his decision to turn Robert Williams III into a roving help defender transformed the team into one of the best defensive units in recent memory. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. It is not a political statement, just the reality of how the NBA sends out schedules to its teams in the offseason, with home games in blue, road games in red. These are combined with up-to-date depth charts tracking injuries, trades, changes in playing time and other player transactions to generate talent estimates for each team. Playoff and title projections: Boston currently has a greater than 99 percent chance . ET, ESPN): Several members of the Bulls organization were furious at the flagrant foul from Grayson Allen that resulted in Alex Caruso's fractured wrist the last time these two teams met. I performed a logit regression on NBA Finals results since 2000 while controlling for the pre-series Elo ratings of each team, and I found that a team with home-court advantage over an evenly matched opponent would be expected to win the series 57 percent of the time meaning most of the perceived advantage of home court in the historical Finals records was just an artifact of the better team also having the home court more often than not. In five of the previous seven seasons, the eventual title winner came from the group of teams with 5 percent odds or better, so theres a decent chance we will be crowning one of those aforementioned squads next June though that doesnt narrow things down very much. Must-see game left on the schedule: 76ers at Cavs, April 3 (6 p.m. So Why Do The Advanced Stats Think He Is One? Were projecting a return to full strength for Ball by early November, and his offensive projection is so strong that it, along with that of Terry Rozier, carries Charlotte to a better-than-expected projected record. Here is how FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR currently has the NBA's playoff seeds unfolding (title odds via Fanduel in parentheses):. Pivot point for the rest of the season: If the Knicks want to make a push down the stretch, they'll need more intensity on the defensive end. Caesars' Eastern Conference odds: +25000 FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: 9%. The Wizards beat the Nets for the second time in five games with Rui Hachimura having his best game of the season with 20 points. The Hawks odds themselves have collapsed, dropping from +8000 a month ago to +15000 after the coaching change. FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: < 0.1%. While youre here, check out some of our other NBA betting sitesor unique basketball betting content like our popular first-quarter/first-half betting report or our analysis of which teams perform best on back-to-back days. Miami Heat (71) Must-see game left on the schedule: Hawks at Hornets, March 16 (7 p.m. If you are having difficulty accessing any content on this website, please visit our Accessibility page. The KD And Kyrie Trades Stole The Show At A Wild NBA Trade Deadline, Politics Podcast: How The War In Ukraine Could Go Nuclear. It would have been impossible to know at the time, but that win jump-started Toronto's season. Two days later, the Hornets topped the Los Angeles Lakers to improve to 28-22 on the season. Golden State Warriors (224) Both the Lakers and Clippers made moves up the NBA odds table in February and are now on a positive trajectory toward the playoffs. But its now clear Sacramentos lofty position in the West is not a magic trick. The NBA's Eastern Conference is deeper than it has been in decades, setting up what should be a wild sprint to the playoffs over the final seven weeks of the 2021-22 NBA regular season. As a result, bettors have become more comfortable buying Sacramento positions. Teams like the Jazz, Spurs, Pacers and more could join this group in the Wembanyama (and Scoot Henderson) sweepstakes at some point during the season, but for now they have better projections due to the quality and volume of their veteran talent. The Easts current fifth-place team is available at an astonishing +15000 in the championship odds table and +5000 in the Eastern Conference market. Understandably, the result is an NBA odds market that looks remarkably different now than it did just four weeks ago. About six percent of bettors at BetMGM favor Dallas to win the West. The All-Star break is over and its time to look ahead to the stretch run of the NBA season. What Are The Most Vulnerable Senate Seats In 2024? While John Collins' recent foot injury that kept him out of the final three games of the break is something to monitor, the Hawks have shown they are capable of going on winning streaks under coach Nate McMillan both last season and this one. The KD And Kyrie Trades Stole The Show At A Wild NBA Trade Deadline, Politics Podcast: How The War In Ukraine Could Go Nuclear. Milwaukee still has a shot at claiming first place in the Eastern Conference before the season ends. A teams full-strength rating assumes all of its key players are in the lineup. Who is the favorite to win the NBA championship? The Kings have moved up 12 spots in the table since the beginning of the season and two from a month ago. Thats a core that NBA bettors really seem to like, too. All boast championship odds between 5 and 7 percent and are projected for between 49 and 51 wins with point differentials between plus-3.0 and plus-3.8 per game. Can the Warriors get healthy just in time again? In over 1,000 minutes together this season, the duo has produced a 9.84 net rating. As of February 21, about 14% of all Western Conference champion tickets at BetMGM were backing Phoenix; 10% of all NBA championship tickets were also on the Suns. Toronto has made its unique blend of athletes surrounding All-Star guard Fred VanVleet work, and it has made for an entertaining season north of the border. And in this case, theres plenty of evidence that the better team doesnt have home-court advantage. Ahead of todays Game 1 of the NBA Finals, lets get one thing out of the way: Our forecast model loves, loves, loves the Boston Celtics. There isn't a more anticipated game the rest of this regular season across the NBA. They have a deep rotation that hasnt been fully healthy and then shook up their rotational mix at the deadline. 1,000 minutes together this season, the Clippers added Mason Plumlee, Eric Gordon and Bones Hyland exchange... 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