Share on Facebook; . Glen Canyon Dam in Lake Powell near Page, Arizona on July 4, 2010. If allocations from the Colorado River dip below the levels necessary for some customers to receive hydropower, the real question [becomes] what can our grid accommodate from a hydropower perspective in terms of compensating production losses from Glen Canyon? said Justin Mankin, an assistant professor of geography at Dartmouth College. This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. What to know about the West's ongoing water crisis: Lake Powell is the nation's second-largestreservoir. What would constitute that? Its 90% of the water supply to Las Vegas, 50% to Phoenix, effectively 100% to Tucson and 25% to Los Angeles, said Udall. a study published in the journal Science said the current dry period in the Southwest is one for the record books, and that its "megadrought-like trajectory" is fueled by natural variability superimposed on . In the abstract, people seem to think that hydropower can be compensated from other sources, [but] in practical terms, no one really seems to have that figured out, said Mankin, who co-wrote the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations Drought Task Forces annual report in 2021. Nearly all of Utah, New Mexico, . KUNC is solely responsible for its editorial coverage. Lake Powell is rapidly drying up as a result of the scorching megadrought in the Western U.S., and may completely disappear in just decades. The combined reservoirs in Utah are below 50% full. Without wet hydrology to replenish the reservoirs, the basin finds itself in an all but certain shortage condition for the first time." . Set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin, this cookie is used to record the user consent for the cookies in the "Advertisement" category . Even hardy desert plants, the ones well-adapted to water scarcity, have struggled. The water level decline . Stock image of Alstrom Point, Lake Powell. Lake Powell is supposed to buffer water supply during times of drought [and] it is not performing that function now. On the contrary, he said, its actually become this locus of huge uncertainty, which doesnt allow downstream users to make effective plans, because they dont know what their allocations are going to be. Correction: A previous version of this story indicated that 3,490 feet is Lake Powell's "dead pool" level. And Lake Mead is currently at 37% capacity. Thats about the amount of water that our soils are behind in terms of what they normally would have, Meyer said. The Glen Canyon Dam forms Lake Powell and the Hoover Dam forms Lake Mead. At full capacity, Lake Powell holds enough water to flood the entire state of Kentucky a foot deep. Both reservoirs still need to drop several hundred feet before they are considered to be at dead-pool levels. Lake Mead the largest reservoir in the Colorado River Basin is losing water at record speeds, dropping . What are the effects of climate change? Im John Dankosky, and now its time to check in on the state of science. The Colorado River systems reservoirs combined arecurrently less than half full. They both use water from the Colorado River. The four Upper Basin states Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming are devising a three-legged stool plan to protect Lake Powell. LUKE RUNYON: Sure, so much of the attention in the basin goes towards the rivers largest reservoirs, which also happen to be the biggest reservoirs in the entire United States. The fact that they're becoming involved in this manner points to real concerns that they must have and they must view the situation as one of extreme difficulty that requires them to act more directly. Lake Powell's feeble condition is part of a climate reckoning in the West that links water, ecosystems, food production, and energy generation. Skip Navigation. AWSALB is an application load balancer cookie set by Amazon Web Services to map the session to the target. We don't know if we can release water to meet downstream requirements. 2002, 2018 and 2021 are the most intense dry periods on record for the basin. Joining me to shed a little bit more light on this is Luke Runyon. Lake Powell is a few hundred feet above dead-pool level. Future conservation efforts are highly uncertain. The dropping water and the reservoirs expanding bathtub rings are also tied to policy. Broadly speaking, dropping levels have created a lot of unanswered questions about the future. The sp_landing is set by Spotify to implement audio content from Spotify on the website and also registers information on user interaction related to the audio content. The bureau's report for June, added on to previously scheduled reservoir updates for January, April and August, paints a dire picture. The Colorado isn't running low on information about water supplies. Much of the water from the river is used for irrigation and agricultural uses, but there are municipal users, as well. And thats because some of these past agreements have put that state in the most vulnerable position for cutbacks. The Glen Canyon Institute has advocated for draining Lake Powell, both to replenish Lake Mead and to restore Glen Canyon, which was flooded to create Lake Powell. Issued by Microsoft's ASP.NET Application, this cookie stores session data during a user's website visit. And its split into two watersheds. Before that, he covered the worlds largest sockeye salmon fishery for KDLG in Dillingham, Alaska. The test_cookie is set by doubleclick.net and is used to determine if the user's browser supports cookies. Levels on Lake Powell, which stores water for the. Both Utah and Nevada experienced their driest years on record in 2020. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. It doesn't strain the mind to imagine us losing power within a year. "Its hard to overstate how important the Colorado River is to the entire American southwest.. Because the deficit is so substantial, Meyer said its very likely the watershed will see drought conditions persist in 2021. Dry soils soak up snow when it melts, keeping it from rivers and reservoirs. A . So water from the Colorado River is now pumped across the state of Arizona via the Central Arizona Project (CAP). In the desert of California lies another manmade lake condemned to death, the Salton Sea. If the reservoir dips below 895 feet a possibility still years . Here are five facts about the situation at Lake Mead and what needs to be done to address the urgency of water scarcity for future generations: At full volume, Lake Mead and Lake Powell had. In addition, the river itself experiences more evaporation. The increase in temperatures means the atmosphere is thirstier. The U.S. Department of the Interior is considering a plan to keep extra water in Lake Powell. The latest projections from the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation show there's a. Balken said depositing the lake's water in Lake Mead, which isn't made out of sandstone,. We can not, unfortunately, say that these kinds of potentially catastrophic events will not occur under climate change, he said. This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The water levels in Lake Powell are dramatically lower than they were in 2021, which in turn were lower than they were in 2020. Theyre already low, because the entire watershed has been experiencing above-average temperatures and below-average river flows since the year 2000. According to the National Park Service, contaminants from the newly exposed shorelines are reentering warm, shallow areas and becoming more concentrated. At its height, the lake surface sits over 1,200 feet (365 meters) above sea level. In case of a drought like that of 2000-2005, Lake Mead would get 7.48 million acre-feet, worsening the structural deficit that is already causing Mead to drop by up to 12 feet a year due to the Lower Basin states chronic overuse of river water compared to supply. The latest data shows the reservoir at 3,523 feet above sea level. SiteLock sets this cookie to provide cloud-based website security services. This drought will only be exacerbated by climate change, as the increased global temperatures are expected to increase the severity of drought weather and frequencies of wildfires, as well as influencing a vast range of other extreme weather events. Keep reading with a digital access subscription. Facebook sets this cookie to show relevant advertisements to users by tracking user behaviour across the web, on sites that have Facebook pixel or Facebook social plugin. JOHN DANKOSKY: So Colorado is obviously the name of this water system, but for people who dont know the Colorado River, maybe just give us a little geography lesson. Meanwhile, Lake Powells projected decline in 2021 recently triggered the Upper Basin plan to be used for the first time. Science Friday transcripts are produced on a tight deadline by 3Play Media. Kuhns analysis is the worst case, said Pat Tyrrell, Wyoming state engineer who has been involved in the Upper Basin water talks. This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. We called several of them and asked for discrete numbers that capture the current state of the Colorado River basin. Grim Future for Lake Powell Water levels in Lake Powell are at record lows. It also helps in fraud preventions. So the question is, how bad is it going to get? Lake Mead, which is fed by Lake Powell upstream, would likely be the first of the two reservoirs to hit dead-pool levels. Some of Americas largest cities depend on the water from Lake Mead. Google DoubleClick IDE cookies are used to store information about how the user uses the website to present them with relevant ads and according to the user profile. Lake Mead's water levels were 1,047.38 feet as of February 23. But there is still this fundamental supply-demand imbalance in the Colorado River basin. That could cripple the ability of the Colorado Rivers four Upper Basin states to deliver river water to the Lower Basin states of Arizona, California and Nevada, as theyre legally obligated to do. The river carried an average of 14.7 million acre feet from 1906 through 2015. Lake Mead's water level on Wednesday was measured at 1,044.03 feet, its lowest elevation since the lake was filled in the 1930s. So, what would happen if Lake Powell dried up? JOHN DANKOSKY: So its not just the reservoirs, though, where you see these dramatic pictures of just how low the water is. So Luke, I dont know is this all just because of climate change? And that group includes the Navajo Nation, the Southern Ute tribe, the Quechan Indian tribe. Water levels dipped below 3,525 feet the last major milestone before a serious threat to hydropower generation at the Glen Canyon Dam. ET: The dead pool level of Lake Powell has been corrected. We'll assume you're okay with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. Lake Powell is in crisis. The second would step up cloud-seeding programs to try to boost snowfall in the region. Its also headed toward a record low later this year. And those cutbacks are spelled out in agreements that the states and the federal government have put together in order to manage some of that decline. 3. LinkedIn sets the lidc cookie to facilitate data center selection. Given todays changing climate, led by continued warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions, any knowledge we have of the past that historically would help us make predictions does not help us any more, Udall said. If decision makers do nothing and take no action and just let the reservoir crash without structurally modifying the dam, there will be a lot of really big problems.. Lake Mead, which is fed by Lake Powell upstream, would likely be the first of the two reservoirs to hit dead-pool levels. The Southwest United States is wrapping up an abnormally dry winter. And really, what were seeing in the basin is that warming of just a couple degrees has the potential to completely upend how the water cycle functions in the Southwest. The Bureau's projections show a 3% chance that Lake Powell's water levels fall below the minimum level necessary for the lake's Glen Canyon Dam to generate hydroelectricity next year. Having a reliable Lake Powell to back up Lake Mead is crucial especially during a period of uncertainty, Lower Basin users say. If levels dropped below 3,490 feet, there wouldnt be enough water flowing through Glen Canyon Dams turbines to generate power. Lake Oroville, a key component of California's water supply, also benefited from the early-winter storms, as . This summer, the water. This cookie, set by Cloudflare, is used to support Cloudflare Bot Management. This Statista chart shows the share of the continental United States' area under different levels of drought between 2018 and 2022. Its impossible to even guess the odds of the Colorado Basin getting another six-year arid spell any time soon, said Udall and another longtime Colorado River researcher, Connie Woodhouse, a professor in the University of Arizonas School of Geography and Development. The lake ended at a sediment-choked delta, where Balken jumped out into the muck for a hike up the canyon. "The West might look different," said Hasencamp. Because of that, its expected that the Department of the Interior'sBureau of Reclamation, which oversees water management, will mandate onesometime next year. And so when you have snow thats melting off, it gets soaked up into the ground before it flows into a river or flows into a reservoir. And even the people who say, you know, oh, just wait for it to get wet again, know that changes have to be made because of that fundamental supply-demand imbalance. Phoenix has underground wells and plusa it gets water from the CAP canal directly from the Colorado river, then there are several near full dams nearby. First of all Lake Powell is not gonna dry up. As an imbalance between water supplies and demands grows in the region, KUNC is committed to covering the stories that emerge. Today its about half full, Kuhn said. The Santa Cruz River is now a giant bed of dust and sand. Climatologist Jon Meyer with the Utah Climate Center said the number that captures the severity for him is 12 inches. Despite the storms that brought heavy rain and snow to California and other Western states in January, experts say it would take years of such weather to replenish the West's water resources. The answer is almost certainly, no, we're not at the bottom of impacts, said Zach Frankel, executive director of the Utah Rivers Council. : Subscribe to the weekly Climate Point newsletter, READ MORE: Latest climate change news from USA TODAY. The idea that these smaller upstream reservoirs can continue to compensate Powells losses, thats not the case, he said. If the water level continues falling on its own, below minimum power pool, the dam is physically incapable of releasing a lot of water. 84% Of Upper Basin In Extreme To Exceptional Drought This is the highest percentage of land in the river's Upper Basin since 2002, which stands as the region's driest year on record. House Democrat nods to Kellyanne Conway in push to make Hatch Act violations a Hemorrhaging losses, the Feds problems are now the taxpayers, Lukashenko arrives in Beijing as concerns rise around China-Russia relations. 40 fun events happening in Tucson this weekend Feb. 23-26 , Opinion: Help protect Lake Mead and Colorado River water, Colorado River runoff forecast keeps dropping, Warm weather reducing Colorado River runoff, study finds, Feds back off from Lake Mead water demand, Businesses, residents paid to save water in this Arizona valley, Tucson to leave nearly 20% of its CAP water in Lake Mead, 'Toilet to tap' water treatment will soon be legal in Arizona, officials say, Big snowstorms put Colorado River drought plan on ice, Colorado River tops group's 'endangered' list again, CAP-California water deal that Arizona nixed provokes ongoing conflict, Water bailout? Those cutbacks are likely to grow steeper in 2021. All information these cookies collect is aggregated and therefore anonymous. And how can certain policy agreements, policy negotiations, be structured in order to allow tribal nations to come to the table and negotiate for future policies? JOHN DANKOSKY: When you use the term megadrought, that sounds like a newer term. Now what? Its lagging in both the Upper and Lower basins, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration projects much of the watershed totilt toward hotter and drier weatherfor the rest of the winter. Back-to-back dry years years with below-average runoff have left little water in Lake Mead and Lake Powell, a reservoir upstream. Earlier this year, the Bureau of Reclamation released about 500,000 acre-feet from Flaming Gorge Reservoir in Utah and Wyoming to Lake Powell, increasing its elevation about 16 feet. Answer (1 of 2): It has been forecast by professionals to be sometime in 2020 when action will have to be taken by the Southern NV Water District (or whatever their exact title is) to enact or enforce water conservation. Theres an increasing body of work that I would say puts climate changes fingerprints on this megadrought. which could funnel up to 300,000 acre-feet from Powell.One of those projects, Utah's Lake Powell pipeline to St. George, would . An acre-foot is 325,851 gallons, or the amount of water that will flood an acre of land to a depth of one foot. So the upper watershed, you have the headwater states. Pause your chores until you have a full-load for the dishwasher. The first warning sign would come if a drought pushed the lake below 3,525 feet, almost 85 feet below where it is now. "Arizona is, to a greater or lesser degree, selling water to California," CAP attorney said of the later-killed deal. During those 25 years, the rivers annual flow averaged 13.2 million acre feet a bit less than what the Bureau of Reclamations studies have predicted it would carry by 2050 thanks to warming weather and other climate changes, Ostler noted. The cookie is a session cookies and is deleted when all the browser windows are closed. At that point, Upper Basin states would start delivering water from their other reservoirs to Powell. More. Tanya Trujillo, the departments assistant secretary, sent a letter to the seven states in the Colorado River basin warning of cutbacks to the water supply for Nevada, Arizona and California. The story has been updated to reflect this information. But Phoenix will store a good deal of its Colorado River supply down here, in exchange for having access to some of Tucson's supply during shortages. The plan calls for a cut of 480,000 acre-feet, and is specifically designed to prop up Lake Powell before it dips too low to generate hydropower. This cookie is used for load balancing purposes. Its been a vital force for the intermountain West because of its ability to store vast amounts of water and generate electricity for farmers, cities and towns in 13 states. They are trying to negotiate a three-state deal that would reduce water deliveries even further, he said. Throughout the history of the American West, water issues have shown their ability to both unite and divide communities. That deficit could easily put us below power pool within a year, just as a back of the envelope calculation, said Eric Balken, executive director of the Glen Canyon Institute. The finding is ominous for the region's future drinking-water supply. If Lake Powell recedes much further, one of the nation's largest reservoirs could be at risk of no longer generating hydropower for the region. This cookie is associated with Django web development platform for python. How does climate change affect you? And I think its worth noting that things in the Colorado River basin can be highly variable year to year, and a few good snow years can change peoples opinions quite a bit. Monsoon rains didnt arrive. This cookie is set by the provider Akamai Bot Manager. Out of these cookies, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. The negotiations promise to be a more intense process than the basin saw in the lead-up to the last set of guidelines in 2007, or the effort to bring together drought contingency plans in 2019. As a key ingredient in everything from asphalt to microchips, scientists are trying to make sand extraction more ecologically friendly. The dryness is currently off the charts in parts of the watershed. You cant do that with groundwater. Get up-to-the-minute news sent straight to your device. One leg would involve reducing water demand by farmers and cities in the Upper Basin. Luke Runyon is the water reporter at KUNC in Greeley, Colorado. Kathryn Sorensen, research director at the Kyl Center for Water Policy at Arizona State University, said it will push water managers further in the direction of finding more permanent solutions. Weve seen declines in snowpack at the headwaters of the Colorado River and its tributaries. Subscribe to stay connected to Tucson. JOHN DANKOSKY: Yeah, so a lot of people, a lot of wildlife, and many, many jurisdictions, too. The lake was just under 24 percent full as of last week, and had lost 16 feet in the last year. Depending on how you define "dry up." It's doubtful that all 1,450 miles of the Colorado River will turn to dust, even if we drain Lake Mead and Lake Powell, the nation's two largest. The water level on Lake Powell is 100 feet from its high mark in August 2013. This cookie is set by Facebook to display advertisements when either on Facebook or on a digital platform powered by Facebook advertising, after visiting the website. It does not store any personal data. The big question is how water managers will divvy up a shrinking supply to feed a growing region. If the outlet tubes cant meet the reservoirs needs, she said, the flow of water in the Grand Canyon itself could be reduced to a trickle. What is the current status of Lake Powell? In addition to the power the lake generates directly, it is a major source of grid resilience when full, serving as a quick backup source in cases where solar or wind power cant meet demand. The lake was just under 24 percent full as of. Through Glen Canyon Dam in Lake Powell and the Hoover Dam forms Lake Powell dried up Mead crucial. Manmade Lake condemned to death, the ones well-adapted to water scarcity, have struggled at 3,523 feet above level... 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Keep extra water in Lake Powell later-killed deal supports cookies light on this is Luke Runyon is nation! Just because what happens if lake powell dries up climate change news from USA TODAY Department of the Colorado River reservoirs. Negotiate a three-state deal that would reduce water deliveries even further, he said thats... Its high mark in August 2013 a hike up the Canyon record speeds, dropping levels have created lot... At dead-pool levels and therefore anonymous cities depend on the water from early-winter. Largest cities depend on the state of Arizona via the Central Arizona Project ( CAP ) Lake Mead crucial. Experienced their driest years on record for the first time and now its time to check in the! To determine if the reservoir dips below 895 feet a possibility still years years with below-average runoff have left water!